基于积温模型丹东地区桃树盛花期预测研究

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1673-503X.2018.01.012

气象与环境学报 ›› 2018, Vol. 34 ›› Issue (1): 99-105.doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1673-503X.2018.01.012

基于积温模型丹东地区桃树盛花期预测研究

董海涛¹, 谭丽静¹, 刘洪林¹, 左晓强², 于文革¹, 孟鑫¹

1. 丹东市气象局, 辽宁丹东 118000;
2. 宽甸县气象局, 辽宁丹东 118200

收稿日期:2016-11-22 修回日期:2017-03-22 出版日期:2018-02-28 发布日期:2018-02-28
作者简介:董海涛,男,1980年生,工程师,主要从事生态与农业气象研究,E-mail:165175634@qq.com。
基金资助:
辽宁省气象局科研课题“丹东桃村花期预测及旅游气象指数研究”（2018SXB11）资助。

Study on forecasting flowering phase of peach tree based on accumulated temperature model in Dandong

DONG Hai-tao¹, TAN Li-jing¹, LIU Hong-lin¹, ZUO Xiao-qiang², YU Wen-ge¹, MENG Xin¹

1. Dandong Meteorological Service, Dandong 118000, China;
2. Kuandian County Meteorological Service, Dandong 118200, China

Received:2016-11-22 Revised:2017-03-22 Online:2018-02-28 Published:2018-02-28

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 利用2005-2015年丹东市河口地区桃树盛花期物候观测资料和宽甸国家基准气候站的逐日平均气温观测资料，分析了丹东地区桃树盛花期与气温要素之间的关系，并采用活动积温、有效积温和滑动积温3种积温模型对丹东地区桃树盛花期进行预测。结果表明：基于国际通用的SW（SpringWarming）物候模型原理建立了活动积温、有效积温和滑动积温3种积温模型模拟丹东地区的桃树盛花期，采用0.1℃温度间隔普查和数学偏差方法确定每种积温模型最具代表性的界限温度及桃树花期前积温阈值，并检验评估3种积温模型的适用性。滑动积温模型对丹东市河口地区桃树盛花期的预测适用性最好，内部检验的准确率为90.91%；其次为活动积温模型（81.82%），有效积温模型的预测效果最差（63.64%）。通过统计2005-2015年5 d滑动积温稳定通过区间最高气温和最低气温的平均值作为判断桃树盛花期的生长指标，使滑动积温模型达到最佳预测效果。因此，丹东地区桃树盛花期预测采取滑动积温模型方法较适用。

关键词: 积温模型, 桃树, 盛花期, 界限温度, SW(SpringWarming)

Abstract: The relationship between flowering phase and temperature was analyzed and the flowering phase of the peach tree was forecasted using the observed flowering phase in Hekou village of Dandong and daily mean temperature of the Kuandian national reference climatological station from 2005 to 2015.Three models,including active accumulated temperature model (AAT),effective accumulated temperature model (EAT) and sliding accumulated temperature model (SAT),were proposed to simulate the flowering phase based on the international accepted Spring Warming (SW) phenological model principle.The total accumulated temperature threshold before blossom and the most representative lower limit temperature of each model were determined using methods of 0.1℃ temperature interval census and mathematical deviation.Besides,the applicability of each model was tested and evaluated.The results show that SAT is the most suitable model for forecasting the peach tree flowering phase in Hekou village of Dandong with an accuracy rate of 90.91%.The accuracy of AAT and EAT are 81.82% and 63.64%,respectively.In this study,the average of maximum and minimum temperature during the period when sliding accumulated temperature passed its lower limit temperature from 2005 to 2015 was taken as an index for forecasting the peach tree flowering phase,which make the accuracy of SAT better than before.Therefore,we conclude the SAT method is a good method to forecast the flowering phase of peach tree in Dandong.

Key words: Accumulated temperature model, Peach tree, Flowering phase, Lower limit temperature, SW (spring warming)

中图分类号:

S685.99

董海涛, 谭丽静, 刘洪林, 左晓强, 于文革, 孟鑫. 基于积温模型丹东地区桃树盛花期预测研究[J]. 气象与环境学报, 2018, 34(1): 99-105.

DONG Hai-tao, TAN Li-jing, LIU Hong-lin, ZUO Xiao-qiang, YU Wen-ge, MENG Xin. Study on forecasting flowering phase of peach tree based on accumulated temperature model in Dandong[J]. Journal of Meteorology and Environment, 2018, 34(1): 99-105.

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基于积温模型丹东地区桃树盛花期预测研究

Study on forecasting flowering phase of peach tree based on accumulated temperature model in Dandong

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